A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
