Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
