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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd